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Spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation pattern in Kaghan forests (Kamalban, Manshi, and Nagan), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan
Abstract
This study quantifies long‑term vegetation change in Kaghan Valley (Mansehra District, KPK, Pakistan) using multi‑temporal cloud-free March Landsat NDVI data from 1995–2025 and classified into four canopy‑density classes. Results reveal a notable increase in high-density forest cover post-2010: for example, very-dense forest in Kamalban increased by approximately 17% (from 2.03 km² in 1995 to 2.38 km² in 2025), and sparse areas reduced by over 58%. Manshi showed sharp NDVI fluctuations, including an 88% decline in very-dense forest between 2010 and 2020, followed by rapid recovery. Nagan showed modest improvements, with moderate and dense vegetation increasing slightly. These trends align with afforestation efforts under the Billion Tree Tsunami (2014–2017). The findings confirm that NDVI is an effective tool for monitoring forest restoration in Himalayan regions, with satellite evidence supporting significant canopy recovery linked to regional reforestation programs.

