PJB-2018-1088
Maxent-based prediction of potential distribution areas of wild alpine flower Meconopsis vig.
Yang Yang
Abstract
As famous wild alpine flowers, Meconopsis species have attracted the attention of botanists and horticulturalists because of their beautiful flowers. Besides, some species have important medicine properties. Introduction and cultivation of Meconopsis are difficult because of its special habitat, so the using for this species is only the wild resources at present. A thorough understanding of Meconopsis suitable habitat is the prerequisite of successful introduction and cultivation. Combining known distribution data and 19 bioclimatic factors, MaxEnt niche modeling and arcGIS software were applied to predict the potential distribution of Meconopsis in China. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess the prediction accuracy. The Maxent Jackknife test was performed to quantify the training gains from data layers and the response of Meconopsis distribution to 19 environmental variables. The results showed that Meconopsis is mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateauu and Hengduan Mountains. Yunnan, Sichuan, Tibet and Gansu province are their distribution centers. The Jackknife analyses of environmental variable showed that Isothermality is the key factor for distribution of M. horridula, M. integrifolia, M. quintuplinervia var. quintuplinervia and M. horridula var. racemosa; Temperature Seasonality is the key factor for distribution of M. punicea and M. lancifolia; Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter is the key factor for distribution of M. impedita, M. napaulensis, M. chelidonifolia and M. oliverana. The approach of ecological niche modeling could be promising in predicting the potential distribution of wild plant species and thus, can be an effective tool in species ecological investigation, germplasm conservation, introduction and cultivation planning.
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