PJB-2018-968
Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Chongqing, China
LI Hong-qun
Abstract
Pine wilt disease, arose by pine wood nematode, is one of the most dangerous biological hazards which leads to great economic losses and ecological damage in the invaded range. Based on the data of 278 known locations and 22 environmental layers in Chongqing, the geographical distribution of potential pine wilt disease was analyzed by using the Maxent model in the current and future conditions. The AUC value of ROC curve was 0.871 for the model training and 0.841 for the model testing together with the comparison between the prediction and the actual results, suggesting the Maxent model provided excellent results. The most significant factors were maximum temperature of hottest month, mean temperature of hottest quarter, altitude, annual mean temperature and minimum temperature of coldest month, the thresholds of which were 30.5~31.8℃, 27.5 ~ 28.7°C, ≤ 400 m, ≥ 17.5℃, and ≥ 2.3℃, respectively. Under the current conditions for the years 1970-2000, 11.17% of total areas, located in the central district of Chongqing were identified as the suitable areas including increased three districts of Jiangbei, Dadukou and Jiulongpo for the nematode while 31.13% of the areas as the moderately suitable areas. During the periods of 2041-2060s and 2061-2080s, proportion of the optimum suitable areas in Chongqing were expected as 13.15%~13.67％and 12.98%~14.35%, with the proportion of moderately suitable areas as 29.77%~31.34% and 29.21%~31.11%, respectively. Altogether, the results showed that the optimum suitable areas would increase in the future. Currently, control the actions for insect vector are necessary to be carried out for the suitable habitats, such as a large number of susceptible and/or symptomatic host trees would be cut and burned in the demarcated areas, and forestry activities related to Pinus trees must be intensively controlled.
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