PJB-2019-117
The current and future potential geographical distribution of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia in China
Liu Xiao-Li, Li Hong-Qun, Wang Jian-Hua, Sun Xie-Ping, Fu Yong-Yao and Xing Li-Gang
Abstract
Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), originally from North America, has had an effect on the ecological environment, social economy and human health in the invaded area. The potential distributing area of common ragweed and the main factors that affect its distributions, were analyzed in China by Maxent model under the current and future conditions. Results showed that the accuracy of Maxent model is high in forecasting its potential distribution area, with an AUC value of 0.943 and 0.920 for model training and testing under the current conditions. The dominate factors were altitude, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation of driest month, precipitation of wettest month, isothermality, and precipitation of wettest quarter with thresholds of -50 to 300 m, 120 to 689 mm, 25 to 140 mm, 200 to 420 mm, 16 to 26 and 400 to 1200 mm. Under the current condition, 4.63% of the areas were identified as the optimum suitable areas of the ragweed, mainly located in south, north, east, central and northeast China, while moderately suitable area was 14.53%. To 50s and 70s of this century under 4 scenarios of RCPs, proportion of the suitable areas are predicted to changes to 7.97%~10.72?and 7.87?~9.30?while moderately suitable area to 11.04~13.00% and 12.38%~13.09%, respectively. The results show that to 50s and 70s of this century, the suitable distribution area increases gradually and moderately suitable areas declines, while between 50s and 70s, the suitable area fluctuates in the small-scale. However, total area of suitable and medium suitable areas almost not change, indicating that in the future ragweed stably spread in present optimum and moderately suitable regions.
To Cite this article:
Li, L.X., L.H. Qun, W.J. Hua, S.X. Ping, F.Y. Yao and X.L. Gang. 2021. The current and future potential geographical distribution of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia in China. Pak. J. Bot., 53(1): DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30848/PJB2021-1(18)
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