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Abstract

Metasequoia glyptostroboides, a tertiary relict conifer species with high evolutionary and conservation value, is naturally restricted to limited regions in China but has been widely introduced worldwide. Understanding its climatic suitability is essential for conservation planning and afforestation management. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the global climatic suitability and potential introduction zone of M. glyptostroboides under current climatic conditions. After removing multicollinearity, eight key environmental variables were selected for modeling. The model showed excellent predictive performance, with a mean AUC value of 0.958, indicating high reliability. Water vapor pressure in October (Vapr10), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and annual precipitation (Bio12) were identified as the most influential variables, jointly contributing more than 70% to the model. Highly suitable areas accounted for approximately 1.09% of the global land area and were mainly distributed in eastern North America and Asia, western Europe, and parts of eastern Africa. Suitable habitats were characterized by moderate winter temperatures (−7.94 to 2.23 °C), sufficient annual precipitation (709 – 1577 mm), and relatively high atmospheric humidity in autumn. These findings highlight the strong dependence of M. glyptostroboides on hydrothermal conditions and provide a scientific basis for conservation, afforestation planning, and introduction strategies under current climate conditions.

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