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Abstract

Southern Punjab, Pakistan, comprises riparian belts, irrigated plains, semi-arid agroforestry zones, and desert margins where key tree species are increasingly affected by climate and land-use pressures. This study used species distribution modelling (SDM), GIS-based spatial analysis, and trait ecology to assess current and future habitat suitability for Acacia nilotica, Dalbergia sissoo, and Tecomella undulata. Species presence records were obtained from field surveys and GBIF, while bioclimatic (BIO1–BIO19), topographic, edaphic, hydrological, and land-use predictors were incorporated into MaxEnt (v3.4.4) models optimized using ENMeval/SDMtune with spatial block cross-validation and bias correction. Suitability outputs were mapped in ArcGIS and projected to mid-century climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Trait analyses in R evaluated tree height, DBH, and leaf morphological attributes across ecological zones. Model performance was high (AUC: A. nilotica = 0.999 ± 0.002; D. sissoo = 0.985 ± 0.004; T. undulata = 0.988 ± 0.003). Temperature–precipitation gradients, particularly annual means and moisture availability in wettest and warmest quarters, were the major drivers of suitability along with hydrological factors. Predicted distributions indicated stable and climatically flexible core ranges for A. nilotica, riparian-restricted suitability for D. sissoo following river and canal networks, and localized arid-zone persistence for T. undulata with limited expansion under future climates. Trait–occurrence correlations were weak overall, with slight positive effects of leaf area in D. sissoo and stem diameter in T. undulata. The results emphasize species-specific management needs, including riparian corridor protection for D. sissoo, desert-habitat conservation for T. undulata, and climate-responsive agroforestry planning for A. nilotica.

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