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Abstract

Advanced analysis and mapping techniques are essential for effective conservation planning. This study utilized habitat suitability modelling to assess the ecological preferences of Cedrus deodara, a keystone Himalayan conifer and Pakistan’s national tree. Species occurrence data were gathered from field surveys and online sources. A total of 39 climatic, topographic and hydrological variables were analyzed, of which 16 were selected for the environmental species distribution model (E-SDM), while 6 climatic variables were used for the climate-only species distribution model (C-SDM). The C-SDM yielded AUCs of 0.987 (training) and 0.925 (testing), with sensitivity 0.976, specificity 0.882 and TSS 0.860. The E-SDM showed AUCs of 0.977 (training) and 0.86 (testing), sensitivity 0.981, specificity 0.915 and TSS 0.904, indicating improved habitat classification. Analysis of variable contributions revealed that C-SDM relied on mean annual temperature and precipitation seasonality, while E-SDM highlighted topography and moisture availability as key drivers of habitat suitability. Incorporating additional predictors in the E-SDM enhanced model precision, underscoring the role of landscape features in C. deodara distribution. This study identified hotspots and prospective conservation areas where E-SDM predicted a broader current distribution (21473 km2) than the C-SDM (17559 km2). Future projections indicate a slight increase in C. deodara habitat under SSP370 (17816-18946 km2), while SSP585 showed a significant expansion by 2041-2070 (24378 km2) before slightly declining by 2071-2100 (20756 km2). The study indicated climate-induced habitat shifts, necessitating integrated conservation, sustainable management and continuous monitoring. These findings suggest afforestation, reforestation and habitat restoration to protect C. deodara in Pakistan.

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