PJB-2026-113
A Comprehensive Meta-analysis of Climate Variability and Its Ecological Effects on Endemic Flora in South Sinai
Abdelraouf Moustafa
Abstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic plant species, particularly in arid and mountainous ecosystems where narrow habitat ranges make these taxa highly vulnerable to environmental instability. South Sinai represents one of Egypt’s richest centers of endemism, hosting species that are increasingly exposed to rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and intensified drought events. This study aims to assess the status of endemic flora in South Sinai and evaluate how climate change over the past fifty years has influenced their distribution, abundance, and ecological performance. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted using published studies from 2000 to 2025, focusing on endemic species documented in Saint Catherine and the surrounding high-elevation wadis. Effect sizes (Hedges’ g) were calculated to quantify the magnitude of climate-related impacts on population density, reproductive success, and altitudinal range shifts. Field-based ecological observations were also examined to integrate qualitative and quantitative evidence. The results reveal a consistent decline in several key endemic species, with a mean negative effect size indicating overall population contraction driven primarily by temperature increases, drought frequency, and extreme climatic fluctuations. Species such as Artemisia herba-alba, Hypericum sinaicum, and Ballota kaiseri exhibited significant upward migratory shifts and reduced reproductive output. The combined evidence indicates that climate change is accelerating habitat fragmentation and increasing extinction risk for Sinai’s narrow-range taxa. This study provides updated, evidence-based insight into the vulnerability of South Sinai’s endemic flora. It highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies aimed at mitigating climate-induced stressors and preserving the ecological integrity of this unique arid mountain ecosystem.
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