PJB-2026-53
FUTURE TRENDS OF WHEAT-PRODUCING COUNTRIES: MARKET DYNAMICS AND SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS (2023–2030)
Ahmet Semih UZUNDUMLU
Abstract
ABSTRACT
This study aims to analyze the production dynamics of wheat, which is of strategic importance for global food security, to generate global production forecasts for the period 2023–2030, and to evaluate the export competitiveness of leading wheat-producing countries. The primary data were obtained from FAOSTAT, and a 62-year wheat production time series covering the period 1961–2022 was analyzed using the ARIMA model with SAS 9.4 statistical software. According to the results, the total wheat production of the ten largest producing countries amounted to 589.1 million tons in 2022. Based on the ARIMA(2,1,2) model, production in these countries is projected to range between 596 and 654 million tons during the 2023–2030 period, with an eight-year average of approximately 626 million tons. Wheat production in other countries is estimated to range between 203 and 229 million tons according to the ARIMA(0,1,3) model, and is expected to account for around 25% of total global production, with an average output of 225.1 million tons. The forecasts indicate that wheat production is expected to increase in China, India, Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and Canada, remain relatively stable in Türkiye, and decline in the United States. In this context, it is crucial for countries holding a leading position in global wheat production to develop innovative strategies aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity, promoting sustainable production practices, and strengthening export competitiveness in response to global challenges such as population growth, climate change, and food security risks.
Keywords: ARIMA, Wheat, Global Warming, Leading Countries, Production Planning
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