PJB-2026-43
Greening the Desert: Success of Urban Planting in Egypt's Smart Cities NDVI Analysis: New Capital vs New Alamein (2016-2030)
walaa azmey
Abstract
Rapid construction of new smart cities in Egypt’s deserts raises essential questions about the success and long‑term stability of planned urban greening. This study uses multi‑temporal MODIS NDVI data (2016–2025) to evaluate the performance of planned green infrastructure in New Capital and New Alamein, two flagship smart cities. Using linear regression, seasonal decomposition, variability analysis, and ARIMA forecasting, the study shows that New Alamein maintains a higher mean NDVI (μ=0.118) than New Capital (μ=0.095), with highly significant differences between regions (p<2e‑16). ARIMA models project stable NDVI trajectories for both cities through 2030, with narrow 95% confidence intervals and low forecast errors (RMSE=0.005). These findings indicate that planned urban greening can be sustained under hyper‑arid conditions, while highlighting critical seasonal windows and management needs for maintaining vegetation performance in desert smart cities.
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