PJB-2023-604
PREDICTING THE POTENTIAL SUITABLE HABITAT FOR CHINA’S ENDANGERED PLANT CYCAS SEXSEMINIFERA BASE ON THE MAXENT MODEL
Lijuan Wei
Abstract
Understanding the relationship between the geographical distribution of plant and their environmental conditions is a key concept in ecology and conservation. We used MaxEnt modeling and ArcGIS to predict the likely range of China’s endangered species, Cycas sexseminifera, based on 41 validated distribution records and eight selected environmental variables. Combined with percentage contribution and permutation importance, the jackknife statistical method was applied to test and evaluate pertinent factors restricting the potential distribution of C. sexseminifera. The response curves of critical bioclimatic factors were employed to determine the potential species range. The generated MaxEnt model was confirmed to have excellent simulation accuracy (AUC=0.997). The current core potential distribution areas are concentrated in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Hainan, Fujian, and Taiwan provinces in China, with a significant inter-regional difference. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) had the greatest impact on the distribution area of C. sexseminifera. The findings could offer scientific guidance to improve the management and conservation of this declining species.
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