PJB-2023-359
DISTRIBUTION OF Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) INVASIVE PLANT SPECIES IN AZERBAIJAN (SOUTH CAUCASUS)
Abdiyeva Rena
Abstract
Biological invasions pose a serious threat to local natural ecosystems, the economy and human wellbeing. In recent decades, there has been an increase in migration activity and an expansion in invasions. Climate change is one of the factors that expand this process. In comparison with previous years, an increase in the activity of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (Asteraceae) invasive species in the occupied area in Azerbaijan has been established. Ecological niche models were generated to represent the potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia invasive alien species in Azerbaijan under the current and future climate change projections, using 277 occurrence locations and combinations of the bioclimate variables. Future predictions were constructed based on scenario MRI-CGCM3 (MG) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The key findings of the study are that A. artemisiifolia is currently beginning to invade the forest and meadow ecosystems of the Azerbaijan, posing a threat of introduction to the protected areas. These findings demonstrate that the predictive modeling can be a significant resource in early detection of the aggressiveness of potentially invasive species, which will play a positive role in preventing their undesirable spread and for the conservation of biodiversity.
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